by George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
North Dakota State University Extension Service
July 11, 2002

Supply and demand factors have changed in the last month according to recent USDA reports. The planted acres and grain stocks reports released June 28 will be reflected in the July supply and demand report.

Although price gains have been common since the reports were released, most of the gains were not due to the acreage and stock reports. Rather, weather was the dominant influence and will continue to be the most important factor.

The reports were negative overall for wheat prices. Spring wheat acres and all wheat stocks were larger than the trade expected. In addition, durum stocks were larger than estimated in the June supply and demand report. On the other hand, durum acres came in below trade expectations and winter wheat harvested acres were below June estimates.

U.S. farmers planted 877,000 more spring wheat acres than March intentions. North Dakota producers accounted for 600,000 of that increase. U.S. durum planted acres were down 82,000 from intentions while North Dakota acres were down 100,000. U.S. winter wheat planted acres were up 286,000 although harvested acres were down 410,000 from the June supply and demand report. Durum stocks were down 12 million bushels from a year ago and all wheat stocks were down 104 million bushels.

Over a million more acres of corn were planted than the trade expected which overshadowed 14 million fewer bushels of stocks than what the trade was expecting. Although corn acres surpassed trade expectations, they were down 100,000 from intentions. North Dakota planted acres met intentions. Corn stocks were down about 330 million bushels from a year ago.

Soybeans were the opposite of corn, a friendly surprise to the market. Almost a million fewer acres were planted than trade expectations and stocks were down about 5 million bushels from trade expectations. Stocks were down about 24 million bushels from a year ago.

Barley acres came in a little below intentions but stocks were almost 9 million bushels above June estimates. Harvested acres of oats exceeded intentions by about 100,000 and stocks were about 8 million bushels greater than expected in the June supply and demand report.

More acres of dry edible beans were planted than intentions but less canola and sunflowers. Relative to a year ago, flax and rye acres were up while stocks were down, canola stocks were up.